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Dollar trade set ups

Here’s my annual, summer currency trade prediction.

The currency trade I see setting up is in the EUR/USD, I see this as playing out over the course of about a year, if it works.

Recap

Last year about this time, I saw and posted the USD/JPY trade, which worked like a charm.  Buy point on that was the little grey circle.

The USD/JPY didn’t move for 4 months.  But when it did, it was fast.

2017 trade(s)

Here’s the set up I see in the EUR/USD


Build a short position in the yellow box.  Possibly 3 adds.

Take profits at each target level, or if confident, hold for target 2 or higher.

Here’s a larger historical view, so you can see how levels correspond with ancient historic levels.

I would imagine the next big pivot will turn around the time our Fed starts QT.  Currently it’s predicted to start in Sept 2017.

$ chart

The dollar chart also sets up this pivot.  Here’s how I’d trade the dollar, or use it as confirmation on forex positions.

In this case, the levels in the yellow box are the estimated pivot points, where I predict the dollar turns up.

Here’s a historic chart, so you can see how those levels acted over the past decade or so.

One last lurch of the dollar down, would probably complete the range of the USD/JPY, setting up a short there, and also push the EURO in to the yellow box.

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