Trade plans and review

Weekly hypo

8-13-16

On weekends I like to zoom out.  Not just on my trading product, but on markets in general, life, inter-relationships.

But on a practical note, this weekend, I’m going to give a brief overview of my last week, and preview of next week, in oil, before moving beyond that.

Preview:

Oil is likely to have two balancing days on Monday and Tuesday, making marginally higher highs, or going sideways.  After two big up days, and entering the shroud of the overhead range, It’s likely to open inside of the prior day’s range each day, and have widening swings, increasing wave sizes, that move back and forth through the open, and repeatedly cancel each other.

Wednesday the trend on news is likely to be down.  Price is most likely to reject away from the overhead inventory, and retest some of the levels of the up waves.  Thursday is likely to follow through down, leading to balance again on Friday, Aug 19.

This is just a rough sketch to indicate the idea.

8-13-16 preview

I don’t think there is any reason to go in to detailed various hypos this early, since they are based on the specifics of the moment.

The point of making hypotheses is to make a framework of what is most likely, so that there is a mental template to compare the actual market action against.  If the market acts as expected, the trade is to execute pre-made trade plans based on the hypos.  If the market acts contrary to the hypo, then often it becomes the opposite, and the trade plan is the opposite.

As the time comes closer, the possible variations become more apparent.  And that’s where the potential for confusion arises, and where skill and experience are honed.

Review:

Last week, I set the goal, to always have something I was consciously working on.

Then my goal for the week was to follow the storyline more closely.  Even though I’ve been watching oil for a long time, my attention has come and gone, both on larger and smaller time frames.  Once I made a mistake, or even if I got something right, I would get mentally lazy, and my attention would wander away.

Even though in some way I thought I was watching oil since early 2015, I didn’t really know HOW to watch it.  I even had ideas and tried trading it way back in 2015.  And often my ideas worked out, and I lost, and was emotionally defeated, confused, and my attention would drift off.

It was not until about 6 months ago that I started watching it in some way every day, and even more recently that I started to try to trade it daily, as I had been doing with ES, as a daily routine since Oct 2015.

Since then, it’s been a continuing process of learning how to follow the storyline, the thread….not lose track of the action, the characters, and so on.

So last week, I did a pretty good job of keeping track.

Late in the week, I introduced a new discipline of writing down my own hypos for the oil action each day.

Next week, my intention is to keep building on the practice of writing the hypos and trade plans.  And the more granular goal is to further focus on my executing my own plan, or variations based on hypos, through following the action first hand.

I still have the possibility of getting distracted by chatter, and making newbie mistakes, such as 1. Chasing. 2. Getting chopped on a balance day, even though I know it’s a balance day.  3. Not being sufficiently alert to a hypo shift, and switching plans.

The last thing is a quicker version of the problem I had in the past.  In the old days, I’d do something wrong, and then forget about the product for days, or weeks.  Lately, I would lose the thread for the rest of the day.  So now, it’s a continuing process of learning how to stay in the game.

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