Another expensive blog
Dick, I’ll buy 3 vowels!
and my Bilderberg cartoons
oil and apocrypha
& readings from the instruction manual for the Logos (if you make it to the end)
Dick, I think the Word is taking shape. That’s a little dirty, isn’t it? Oh my, can you say that on internet? Engulfment? Engorgement? Oh, I was thinking of a different word. Silly me. Wait, was I right? Is that really it? What do I win? No, that’s not it? Dang.
Ok, it was expensive, but I think this is my best yet. The more expensive they come…the, bigger, um, the harder, or, er, ok, let’s get on with it…
Just another Pretty Picture, oil
It’s like music. The slide from $46 to $39 took exactly 10 days. And the climb back up took 10 days too.
Just as the move below $42 violated 50% of the 2016 up, today penetrated 50% of the down move since June 6.
The upside of the V negates the downside. It’s like a 10 day candle shutting off the sellers of the previous 10 day candle.
Pop goes the Weasel. Can you say engulfment?
The up impulse on 8-10 was bigger than any rotation of the down move. My, that is big!
Why is all this happening? The ostensible reason is that SA and Russia are again discussing stabilizing prices. And, Iran says they might participate. Really?
The boy who cried “….!”
This is a textbook version of the boy who cried wolf. Or rather, the mirror inverse reverse opposite squiggly cartoony version. The boy who cried “stabilize!”
The move up is caused by actual people buying. Is that news really the reason they did that buying? And who are they? Who might they be?
Well, funny I should ask me that. Let’s say you were SA and Russia, and you wanted to convince the world that oil was stabilizing, or that your story was true this time. How hard would it be to convince a few hedge fund titans, or even Exxon, to buy up futures, to support the story? Just print some money, and give it to them on the sly.
Russia and SA and their hedge fund titan and oil tycoon buddies don’t give a flying fuck about chart patterns, and technical levels. Or do they? They would be idiots not to pay some guy a paltry salary to tell them how traders reads charts.
Or just read something like my blog for free. And then, like the guy in the story, who sold soy beans, just to prove the technician wrong, purposely violate certain levels.
Take that, oil market! I know you like it.
But on some scale, no one is above technicals. No matter how big you are, all your actions are subsumed in larger waves of chart music.
And ultimately the fundamental world of reality, currencies, actual consumption, economies, bank policies, alternative energy, fracking, and all the countries that produce oil, collectively is a much bigger dick than any of you derivative manipulators.
You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time….well, you know how that story ends.
So, what is reality?
Although my weekly hypo this week has been taken out to the woodshed, it still may pull off a Kung Fu. And even if not, its Shaolin buddies may show up later, 5 minutes after US inventories are announced, tomorrow.
That’s giving my hypo a lot of credit, making it analogously David Carradine in Kung Fu. But on the other hand, the end to his actual life cast a weird light on all that had gone before.
If reality has taught us anything, it’s be prepared for weird twists in the plot.
This move is still overbought. The larger time frame idea expressed in the post Oil Bellwether may still be correct.
The idea there was that the break, and hold, below the critical $42 level, signaled a bigger time frame, longer sideways consolidation.
Oops, I did it again
Sometimes one fails to notice something that should have raised an eyebrow. Like magic, one is looking at one thing (like that picture perfect breakdown-retest level, right at 50% of the down move, right at $46, neat as a pin.)
Meanwhile, the “magician” blatantly breaks above the major down trend line, with the closing action at the end of yesterday.
A student of market magic might have also taken note that the smaller timeframe megaphone off the bottom reversal was already engulfed in a larger one. Hm. (Suggesting larger time frame chop, as the market explores a growing range of prices, and generates bigger and bigger waves, that keep engulfing each other.)
Putin puts his titan back in his pants. My work here is done, he shrugs with mock humility. Hey, we eat hedge funds for lunch. Isn’t that right Ali? A burp would be polite here.
Now what, tomorrow?
Well, maybe this:
Pop to $47.60, reverse, fall. If not that, then what? Well, another eyebrow raiser. But that’s my story, and I’m sticking to it.
(I mean, unless I change it. This is not a trade recommendation. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Well, thank goodness for that last part!)
Btw, that is an SEC required blurb, that someday someone might insist I say, if anyone ever listens to me.
It just so happens the new hypo (for a reversal at $47.60) moves the fibs to nice places, and if we’ve learned one thing, it’s that oil traders can’t resist a pretty picture, no matter how big their dicks are. Am I right? They are Fibonacci’s bitch. High five!
One of the reasons we make hypotheses is to have a template for what “should” happen. It sets up a test that proves or disproves a specific idea about how the world works, or is working.
If hypo 1 does not happen, it’s not the end of the world. It just means the world is not as expected. But it IS some other way. Isn’t it? That’s my meta-hypo.
Without hypotheses, we’d just be superstitious cavemen. The titans are buying oil! Wait, that was my theory, wasn’t it?
Well, caveman cartoons, Egyptian hieroglyphics, runes, cuneiform, Sanskrit, Chinaman doodles and even alphabetic text can be used, like the finger pointing at the moon, to direct the attention to the thing itself, even if it is crudely rendered. Ha! Crudely.
May I be profitably self-amused, that that amusement may last.
The failed hypo is not “failure,” as in the thing that makes a guy depressed. It is new information. We may have paid for it, playing hypo 1. But a failure of hypo 1 leads to new hypos. Hypos cost money! Giving up on making hypos when one fails is throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
(Hypos are they baby, they grow up!)
A word to the wise, or wannabe wise: don’t get hypnotized by failed hypos. We’re all scientists here right? Or at least we’ve heard of scientists.
If the thing we expected does not happen, we do not pout and cry in our milk. Are we not men, or women, or something? No, we have brains, or algos. We can adjust. Make a new plan, Stan!
your day, the dancers with your tempo, the statistical probability of their next move
Give us this day our daily liquidation break. It is a statistical likelihood. Which sets up the mid trade. Assuming certain conditions are met.
My orders a mid
We are not inside yesterday’s range. We have moved impulsively away from yesterday’s range. Since the first impulse, we have not yet pulled back to the mid. We are in the end of a move of several days, rather than at the beginning of a move. Therefore, a trend is not likely. We “should” get a pullback. And the mid long is also correct.
Ticks and indices are weak. Tuesday should be a mover, and instead everything is coiled, pensive. Well, now I’m just being pensive, while I wait.
What do you bet SA and Russia talks will fail?
That is to say, what do I bet? The farm, the house…a modest sum, befitting my risk-averse sensibilities?
Ok, I admit, I have a bias. Maybe this time it WILL be different. But sometimes the spurned lover is right not to take back the wayward bastard!
Besides, what can they do? Does it even matter? Is the world really so naïve to think that those guys control the price of oil, still?
Even if you don’t think it’s driven by the dollar, that central bankers are the real Oz…even then, who the frack cares about Russian and SA?
Liquidation break, mid test…not
Waiting…at 11 am pst, really? Nope. Still not.
I feel like one of those Peanuts dancers. Better change the station. Pandora is getting repetitive. This is a long time to stand on my head. Being upside down so long can’t be good for the circulation. Well, practice makes perfect. Practice duration: no guarantees.
(Why is meditation called “practice,” again? I keep forgetting what we’re practicing to do. Nothing? Oh yeah. No. Really? Was that it? Are you sure?)
11:28, ok, uncle. Tomorrow’s another day. Inventory report day. My favorite!
No point standing on your head till your eyes pop out, no matter how good it’s sposed to be for you. Oh, no one said that’s good for you? Uh, my mistake.
Still, I stand by myself, even if a little embarrassed. This wasn’t the dumbest day to fight price. It wasn’t a trend. 4th big up day. I still think longs are being led to the slaughter.
Gather the herd, Vlad.
Do you think it’s bad of us, Ali, to take profit here, even though we just ripped it up to make a story?
Hey, everything comes and goes in waves. We pushed it high enough to prove our point. Our work here is done.
Do we really care? Should we?
Brendan: They do have 150 billion barrels.
Iran seems irrelevant to the price of oil to me. The bigger question about Iran is really how seriously we should take their political posturing.
Maybe my bias is fear driven, but I think it’s a red herring. Hey, look at Iran, scary huh. (Heh, they’ll never notice this $ quadrillion in derivatives. Hey, where’s the switch on this printing press?)
But in the interest of fundamentals, who really does have the biggest…fields.
Wait, what? A $ quadrillion in derivatives. That’s a pretty big thing. You really think you can hide that?
We’re on a mission from God! (If anybody asks.)
What’s the mission?
We’re gonna make robots and artificial intelligence (and a buttload of money!)
But all those derivatives? Don’t you think the media will notice? (Or wikilinks or Snowden or something, since Rupert is our bud.)
“In this case, I think we have to go all out. I think this situation absolutely requires a really futile, and stupid gesture, be done on sombody’s part!”
“And we’re just the guys to do it!” (to mix Belishi movie quotes).
Ok, let’s spitball. Ideas?
Let’s get someone really crazy. Hey, let’s get Kim Jong-un! He won’t do, Kim hates every idea. Hey, he likes it! Hey Kim.
But no, that’s still not enough. What about Iran? Those Imams are batshit crazy. That will make for some big fnords.
Why all the nasty, suggestive language?
I hate to be the bearer of news (not really), but markets are a rough playground. It is a pornographic fight. And that’s if you’re doing it right! At least I don’t use potty language.
(I don’t know why sex and violence are correlated. Some kind of id code that got stuck in a tree shrew a billion years ago, I guess.)
I’m not a scatologist. I’m an economic eschatologist! History (and everything that led to it) is one giant uptrend, and the trade now is the breakout trade. The end is not the end, it’s the beginning of the next leg up!
Even Warren Buffet has had a sitffy or two in his time. (And Soros, fuhgeddaboudit.) Buffet may live frugally, talk like a nice grandpa, and dress up his trades in a summer skirt from the “value” line. But behind closed doors, he hasn’t failed to fondle a nice rounded bottom or three (and secretly gloated about all the hapless losers who chased her down here, and finally gave up…and that’s when he struck. The snake!)
I get bloody and beaten in the market. But slowly I’m taking a cue from Clint. (Eastwood, that is.) I wipe the $3k of blood from the corner of my mouth on the back of my hand, and lick my lips. I give the market a steely look in the eye. You just whet my appetite, market.
And then one day when I’m shootin for some food, up from the ground come a bubblin….
And the next thing ya know, it’s gonna be time to head for the hills (Beverly, that is.)
The Field and the logos
Or in my case, not Beverly Hills, but the Field of Dreams, the social hedge fund, that will seed a historical socio-economic paradigm shift, that will put this timeline on the map!
I know Mr Drysdale of the Bilderberg group at Davos will regard me like a poor mountaineer. And ok, I’m not ashamed of it. I’m not saying I don’t have a thing or two to learn.
But hear me out. You may insist on the elevator pitch, but I know, even if you pretend, Mr Drysdale, you don’t really suffer with Twitter ADD. You got your Ritalin!
You and your kin have been thinking this through for 100s of years. I respect that.
What’s that? You trace your lineage back to the pharaohs. Ok, wink wink. I’m down with that.
In any case, even the pharaohs might not have had it all figured out. They might not have had every idea.
There’s a deeper wave than this, right Sting?
Anyway, let’s build it, and see if they come. Why not. What have we got to lose? Fact, I reckon I already done built it. I know it’s just a prototype. I know it’s just “new money.”
But it’s not a zero sum model. It is no threat to the hegemony. It’s a glass half full kind of thing. Not either or, but both and.
What did those old timey Coptic Illuminati teach us after all, but how to use the tool of the Logos.
That is your heritage, right Mr Drysdale? You do claim to come from the Masons and their ancestors?
We are charged with doing right by this world, all worlds, and all beings, are we not?
And the tools we have been given to accomplish this are, not just dominion over this world, and all its animals (including humans.) And not just the power to create material wealth and phenomena, and wield control of it all through the reins of the financial wizardry we call banking….
But yay, the power of the WORD itself! We KNOW the truth, that the world is not an objective phenomena, to be mounted, beaten, dissected, ravaged, ruled and comprehended. No! The World (in the Kabbalistic use of the word, reality), is subjective, interactive, a set of inter-relationships, irreducible, illimitable, incomprehensible!
We and the world co-create each other, with what we think… and we manipulate what we think with what we say.
We have skull on our desk, to remind ourselves, in spite of our immortal potions, of our interconnectedness, with all beings, all phenomena.
We are lovers, telling our story together. We can make music, sweet music! Phenomena suggests a new melody, and we weave possibilities with creative lyrics.
No one is in charge! Lest we forget, right Mr Drysdale? We all forget sometimes.
No! Bad market!
Nasty market. Naughty naughty.
And after close, there is the liquidation break! And mid trade. (Mid moved up a few cents with the end of day pop.)